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maximum credible earthquake (MCE)

The largest hypothetical earthquake that may be reasonably expected to occur along a given fault or other seismic source could produce under the current tectonic setting. It is a believable event which can be supported by all known geologic and seismologic data. A hypothetical earthquake is deterministic if its fault or source area is spatially definable and can be located a particular distance from the dam under consideration. A hypothetical earthquake is probabilistic if it is considered to be a random event, and its epicentral distance is determined mathematically by relationships of recurrence and magnitude for some given area. The MCE can be associated with specific surface geologic structures and can also be associated with random or floating earthquakes (movements that occur at depths that do not cause surface displacements). The seismic evaluation criteria determines which faults or seismic sources are assigned an MCE. The most severe earthquake that can be expected to occur at a given site on the basis of geologic and seismological evidence. The severest earthquake that is believed to be possible at the site on the basis of geologic and seismological evidence. It is determined by regional and local studies that include a complete review of all historic earthquake data of events sufficiently nearby to influence the project, all faults in the area, and attenuations from causative faults to the site. The earthquake associated with specific seismotectonic structures, source areas, or provinces that would cause the most servere vibratory ground motion or foundation dislocation capable of being produced at the site under the currently known tectonic framework.

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