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What economic activity is all about, but how can it be made to happen? Economists have plenty of theories, but none of them has all the answers. Adam Smith attributed growth to the invisible hand, a view shared by most followers of classical economics. Neo-classical economics had a different theory of growth, devised by Robert Solow during the 1950s. This argued that a sustained increase in investment increases an economy's growth rate only temporarily: the ratio of capital to labor goes up, the marginal product of capital declines and the economy moves back to a long-term growth path. Output will then increase at the same rate as the growth in the workforce (quality-adjusted, in later versions) plus a factor to reflect improvements in productivity. This theory predicts specific relationships among some basic economic statistics. Yet some of these predictions fail to fit the facts. For example, income disparities between countries are greater than the differences in their savings rates would suggest. Moreover, although the model says that economic growth ultimately depends on the rate of technological change, it fails to explain exactly what determines this rate. Technological change is treated as exogenous. Some economists argued that doing this ignored the main engine of growth. They developed a new growth theory, in which improvements in productivity were endogenous, meaning that they were the result of things taking place within the economic model being used and not merely assumed to happen, as in the neo-classical models. Endogenous growth was due, in particular, to technological innovation and investments in human capital. In looking for explanations for differences in rates of growth, including between rich and developing countries, the new growth theory concentrates on what the incentives are in an economy to create additional human capital and to invent new products. Factors determining these incentives include government policies. Countries with broadly free-market policies, in particular free trade and the maintenance of secure property rights, typically have higher growth rates. Open economies have grown much faster on average than closed economies. Higher public spending relative to GDP is generally associated with slower growth. Also bad for growth are high inflation and political instability. As countries grew richer during the 20th century annual growth rates declined, as a result of diminishing returns to capital. By 1990, most developed countries reckoned to have long-term trend growth rates of 2-2. 5% a year. However, during the 1990s, growth rates started to rise, especially in the United States. Some economists said this was the result of the birth of a new economy based on a revolution in productivity, largely because of rapid technological innovation but also (perhaps directly stemming from the spread of new technology) to increases in the value of human capital.
Industry:Economy
Another measure of a country's economic performance. It is calculated by adding to GDP the income earned by residents from investments abroad, less the corresponding income sent home by foreigners who are living in the country.
Industry:Economy
A measure of economic activity in a country. It is calculated by adding the total value of a country's annual output of goods and services. GDP = private consumption + investment + public spending + the change in inventories + (exports - imports). It is usually valued at market prices; by subtracting indirect tax and adding any government subsidy, however, GDP can be calculated at factor cost. This measure more accurately reveals the income paid to factors of production. Adding income earned by domestic residents from their investments abroad, and subtracting income paid from the country to investors abroad, gives the country's gross national product (GNP). The effect of inflation can be eliminated by measuring GDP growth in constant real prices. However, some economists argue that hitting a nominal GDP target should be the main goal of macroeconomic policy. This is because it would remind policymakers to take into account the effect of their decisions on inflation, as well as on growth. GDP can be calculated in three ways. The income method adds the income of residents (individuals and firms) derived from the production of goods and services. The output method adds the value of output from the different sectors of the economy. The expenditure method totals spending on goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation and capital consumption. As one person's output is another person's income, which in turn becomes expenditure, these three measures ought to be identical. They rarely are because of statistical imperfections. Furthermore, the output and income measures exclude unreported economic activity that takes place in the black economy but that may be captured by the expenditure measure. GDP is disliked as an objective of economic policy by some because it is not a perfect measure of welfare. It does not include aspects of the good life such as some leisure activities. Nor does it include economically valuable activities that are not paid for, such as parents teaching their children to read. But it does include some things that lower the quality of life, such as activities that damage the environment.
Industry:Economy
There are few more hotly debated topics in economics than what role the state should play in the economy. Plenty of economists provided intellectual support for state intervention during the era of big government, particularly from the 1930s to the 1980s. Keynesians argued that the state should manage the amount of demand in the economy to maintain full employment. Others advocated a command economy, in which the government would decide price levels, oversee the allocation of scarce resources and run the most important parts of the economy (the "commanding heights") or, in communist countries, the entire economy. The role of the state increased at the expense of market forces. Economists provided plenty of examples of market failure that seemed to justify this. Since the 1950s, there has been growing evidence that government intervention can also be flawed, and can often impose even greater costs on an economy than market failure. One reason is that when a government acts, it usually does so as a monopoly, with all the attendant economic inefficiencies this implies. In practice, policies of Keynesian demand management often resulted in inflation, and thus lost much of their credibility. There was growing concern that public investment was crowding out superior private investment, and that other public spending on things such as health care, education and pensions was similarly discouraging private provision. Government management of commercial enterprises was often seen to be inefficient and, starting in the 1980s, nationalization gave way to privatization. Even when the state was not directly responsible for economic activity, but instead set the rules governing private behavior, there was evidence of regulatory failure. High rates of taxation started to discourage people and companies from undertaking economic activities that would, without the tax, have been profitable; wealth creation suffered. Most economists agree that there is a need for some government role in the economy. A market economy can function only if there is an adequate legal system, and, in particular, clearly defined, enforceable property rights. The legal system is probably an example of what economists call a public good (although the existence in many countries and industries of some self-regulation shows it is not always so). Although politicians in many countries spent most of the period since 1980 talking about the need to reduce the role of the state in the economy, and in many cases introduced policies of privatization, deregulation and liberalization to help this happen, public spending has continued to increase as a share of GDP. Within the OECD, public spending accounted for a larger slice of GDP in 2002 than in 1990, which was in turn higher than in 1980. Indeed, it has risen during every decade since the start of the 20th century. One reason was that governments had to honor spending commitments on pensions and health care made by previous generations of politicians.
Industry:Economy
Over the economic cycle, a government should borrow only to invest and not to finance current spending. This rule is certainly a prudent approach to fiscal policy, provided that governments are honest in describing spending as investment, that they invest in appropriate things and do so efficiently, and that they are careful to avoid crowding out superior private investment. But there are other fiscal policy options that may make as much sense. See, for example, balanced budget.
Industry:Economy
A monetary system in which a country backs its currency with a reserve of gold, and allows currency holders to exchange their notes and coins for gold. For many years up to 1914, most of the world's leading currencies had their exchange rate determined by the gold standard. The economic disruption resulting from the first world war led the combatants to abandon the link to gold. The UK (with others) returned to the gold standard in 1925, before quitting it for good in 1931. The widespread use of the gold standard ended during 1930-33 as a result of global depression and large cuts in international lending. The United States left the gold standard in 1933 and partially returned to it in 1934. After the second world war, a limited form of gold standard continued but only directly applied to the dollar; other major currencies had their exchange rates fixed to the dollar under the Bretton Woods arrangements. The dollar was finally cut loose from the gold standard in 1971.
Industry:Economy
For much of human history gold has been an important ingredient of economic activity. But its importance declined during the 20th century and may continue to shrink in future. The gold standard, which fixed exchange rates to the value of gold during the 19th and early 20th centuries, has been long abandoned. Central banks, which in 2000 still owned 30,000 tones, over one-quarter of all the gold ever mined, no longer feel the need to have large reserves of the metal to support the value of their currency. It does not pay them any interest, though they may earn a little by lending it to bullion dealers. So they have started to sell. Governments and investors have traditionally held gold as a hedge against inflation and to provide security at times of international crisis. But its role as a store of value has been tarnished. During the 1980s and 1990s, the value of gold generally failed to keep pace with inflation. The liquidity of gold is also less than that of a foreign currency so it cannot as easily be used for foreign exchange intervention in defense of a currency under attack. In short, gold is no longer a monetary asset. It has become just another commodity, although so-called gold-bugs still believe that should inflation ever soar again, gold will once more become the thing to have.
Industry:Economy
A buzz word that refers to the trend for people, firms and governments around the world to become increasingly dependent on and integrated with each other. This can be a source of tremendous opportunity, as new markets, workers, business partners, goods and services and jobs become available, but also of competitive threat, which may undermine economic activities that were viable before globalization. The term first surfaced during the 1980s to characterize huge changes that were taking place in the international economy, notably the growth in international trade and in flows of capital around the world. Globalization has also been used to describe growing income inequality between the world's rich and poor; the growing power of multinational companies relative to national government; and the spread of capitalism into former communist countries. Usually, the term is synonymous with international integration, the spread of free markets and policies of liberalization and free trade. The process is not the result simply of economic forces. The decisions of policymakers have also played an important part, although not all governments have embraced the change warmly. The driving force of globalization has been multinational companies, which since the 1970s have constantly, and often successfully, lobbied governments to make it easier for them to put their skills and capital to work in previously protected national markets. Firms enjoying some national protection, and their (often unionized) workers, have been some of the main opponents of globalization, along with advocates of fair trade. Despite all the talk of globalization during the 1990s, in some respects the world economy was more integrated in the late 19th century. The labor market was certainly more global. For example, the flow of people out of Europe, 300,000 people a year in the mid-19th century, reached 1m a year after 1900. Now governments are much fussier about immigration, and people are no longer free to migrate as they wish. As for capital markets, only in the 1990s did international capital flows, relative to the size of the world economy, recover to the levels of the few decades before the first world war. This early globalized economy did not last for long, however. Between the two world wars, the flows of trade, capital and people collapsed to a trickle. Even before the first world war, governments started to put up the shutters against migrants and imports. Could such a backlash against globalization happen again?
Industry:Economy
The vehicle for promoting international free trade, through a series of rounds of negotiations between the governments of trading countries. The first GATT round began in 1945. The last led to the establishment of the world trade organization in 1995.
Industry:Economy
The ability of people to undertake economic transactions with people in other countries free from any restraints imposed by governments or other regulators. Measured by the volume of imports and exports, world trade has become increasingly free in the years since the second world war. A fall in barriers to trade, as a result of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its successor, the World Trade Organization, has helped stimulate this growth. The volume of world merchandise trade at the start of the 21st century was about 17 times what it was in 1950, and the world's total output was not even six times as big. The ratio of world exports to GDP had more than doubled since 1950. Of this, trade in manufactured goods was worth three times the value of trade in services, although the share of services trade was growing fast. For economists, the benefits of free trade are explained by the theory of comparative advantage, with each country doing those things in which it is comparatively more efficient. As long as each country specializes in products in which it has a comparative advantage, trade will be mutually beneficial. Some critics of free trade argue that trade with developing countries, where wages are usually lower and working hours longer than in developed countries, is unfair and will wipe out jobs in high-wage countries. They want autarky or fair trade. Real-world trade patterns sometimes seem to challenge the theory of comparative advantage (see new trade theory). Most trade occurs between countries that do not have huge cost differences. The biggest trading partner of the United States, for instance, is Canada. Well over half the exports from France, Germany and Italy go to other European Union countries. Moreover, these countries sell similar things to each other: cars made in France are exported to Germany, and German cars go to France. The main reason seems to be cross-border differences in consumer tastes. But the agricultural exports of Australia, say, or Saudi Arabia's reliance on oil, do clearly stem from their particular stock of natural resources. Also poorer countries often have more unskilled labor, so they export simple manufactures such as clothing.
Industry:Economy
